Tuesday, September 30, 2008

How did my Congressional Representative Vote on the Bailout Bill?

As the financial crisis continues to unfold, the ineptitude of the current Congress is becoming more evident to me. I was extremely disappointed that the House did not pass the bailout bill that was put to vote on September 29, 2008. To me, the bill is more than a bailout. It's about restoring confidence in the U.S. financial systems, which are on the brink of failure. I decided to check how my Congressional representative voted on HR 3997 and use that information to help determine how I will vote this November.

My representative voted "no" and definitely will not get my vote. Although it pains me that that the candidate from the other party may get the seat, I am happy to vote out an incumbent from my party who I think has demonstrated incompetence during financial crisis.

For more details on how the House voted on HR 3997, see this link.

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Monday, September 29, 2008

9/29/08 Stock Position Update - Political Gridlock Drives Portfolio Down

I continue to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. So far I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. Given the extreme volatility of the market, I continue to be cautious for both purchases and selling short.

Due primarily the perception of a government gridlock with respect to the bailout, the holdings lost about 7% from last week. The overall portfolio is down 12.3% and the remaining holdings are down 21.9%. The only other positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.

For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). The system has given a sell signal for Williams Cos. (8/8/08), Range Resources (8/22/08) and Research in Motion (9/12/08). The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).

From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Buy List

Stock
[purchase date]
SharesPurchase Price

Price on 9/26/08

Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

$58.17

$47.63

Potash (POT) [7/18/08]10

$215.09

$147.55

Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]50

$39.46

$33.24

Potash (POT) [7/24/08]10

$192.02

$147.55


*Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. I plan to sell it once it reaches the original purchase price.

At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks. Although I am extremely tempted to buy more as the stocks decline, I will make no additional purchases at this time.
From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

Price

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

$38.10

closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69



I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting, but have not identified other good candidates as of today.

On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $38.25 on 9/26/08 . I'm waiting for it to approach the 50s again, before taking another short position.

The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 9/26/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 14.34%, 17.68%, and 16.06% year to date. The three indices are only slightly above the third bottom of 17.70%, 17.81%, and 18.77% in my 9/15/08 Stock Position Update. If a bailout agreement is reached this weekend, I expect a short term rally in the markets. However, I think another bottom will occur before the market recovers.

I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in the remainder 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.

For now, I am shifting to more cash and I will also try to create a short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.

Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Research in Motion, Range Resources, Williams Companies, Hess, and Sears Holdings.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Joined A Health Club

In one of My Wealth Builder's earliest posts, Buy Only What You Need, I noted how I had never joined a health club and saved at least $30/month. I felt that I would do just as well using my own weights and exercising at home.

Over the last few months, we've reconsidered that choice and joined my company's health club in the past week. The cost is $36/month and there was no initiation fee. Also, as an early retiree, we can suspend our membership and reinstate it at no cost whenever we are away for over a month. Here's the complete set of reasons we did it:
  1. Access to instructor led classes. My spouse was already taking yoga classes at a cost of $5 per session. Yoga classes are offered twice a week at the health club. In my case, I have mostly been involved in team sports as my exercise routine. I am more motivated when exercising in a group, which is gets more difficult to do as I get older. The health club offers 27 group classes each week, which is included in our membership.


  2. Low cost. This September, the club suspended new member initiation fees for the month. This saved us $52. Also, the $36/month fee for two of us was relative low as compared to other clubs. However, this club is a smaller facility, only open on weekdays and doesn't offer babysitting as other more expensive clubs do.


  3. Proximity. The club is about 3 miles from our house and our daughter's pre-school, which makes it easy to make the trip. It's almost on the way to about anyplace I would drive.

For us, the break even point for the health club is doing 7-8 classes a month, assuming a $5 cost per class. After that, everything else, e.g. weight machines, is a bonus. As a start, I will try working out one to two times a week before I attend my morning classes.

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial or health advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Saturday, September 27, 2008

A Slow Motion Wreck

In a March, 2008 post, I was concerned that 2008 could be a very bad year for my investments. Unfortunately, the financial events since then, including a massive bailout this week, have made that concern a reality. I don't think there is any way the government can quickly reverse the financial turmoil that exists. The best I can hope for is that a massive financial failure is avoided and the economy is saddled with an extended recovery, not unlike what happened in the seventies. I hope I am wrong.

This financial crisis has been a slow motion wreck in the making since the Fed decided not to act quickly in July, 2007 with the first indications of the sub prime mortgage failures. Ben Bernanke was walking a fine line between letting some companies fail and having the economic system fail. At first, the Fed's strategy appeared to work, with Countrywide being acquired. However, in early 2008, Bear Stearns was going to collapse before being acquired by J.P. Morgan. Then IndyMac was taken over by the FDIC, followed by Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy and the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America. This week Washington Mutual was seized by the government and the assets were sold to J.P. Morgan.

Since 1980, most of the stock market declines and economic recessions have been relatively short spikes. This one has take a long to time occur and likely will take a long time to recover, no matter what the terms of the imminent bailout are.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Thursday, September 25, 2008

The Widespread Impact of the Financial Crisis of 2008

"I don't think it (the stock market falling) will affect most of America" ~ Senator Richard Shelby R-Alabama in an interview with NPR where he shared his opposition to the bailout proposal.

Contrary to Senator Shelby's statement, just about everyone I know has been affected by the stock market decline of 2008. From what I've seen, the impact also cuts across generations. Here's how it has affected those in my family:

  • My daughter's savings. Her 529 college mutual fund account is now 8.2% below the total amount we have contributed since 2005. At one time it was up about 20%. Fortunately, it will be another 14 years before we need the money.

    Her UTMA savings account is up 7.7% since I had invested it in CDs for the past 2 years.


  • Our retirement savings. In my Q2 2008 update, I shared that our savings had declined 21.6% since the beginning of the year. Most of the decline was due to my company stock, which is not in the financial industry.

  • Our parents savings. Although my in-laws and my mom have pensions and social security, they also have significant funds invested in the stock market. While I don't know their exact returns, I think they are also down for the year.
  • While I agree with Senator Shelby that the stock market decline is not a good reason for a bailout, I do believe that the current financial crisis could destroy the U.S. economy. I hope Congress realizes soon that they have to act quickly to hopefully contain the damage and restore confidence in U.S. credit markets.

    For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Wednesday, September 24, 2008

    Two Questions I Ask During a Bear Market

    "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - Peter Lynch

    This bear market has lasted quite awhile. Next month the bear market will be one year old. Based on the current situation in the financial markets, I believe the stock market malaise will easily last another year until October, 2009. At this point, I plan to maintain my current stock holdings and not add any new money. The only exception is that I plan to sell some of the company stock in my retirement account during any bear market rallies.

    Here two questions I answered to determine my current planned actions.
  • Can I sleep well at night? While my accounts are down, the value decline is primary due to the stock market being down, versus individual stock issues that I own. Since I do have confidence in a US and global economic recovery, I expect that my diversified equity accounts will recover with time. As expected, the CD and bond elements of our portfolio have small positive returns.

    However, this bear market helped me realize the risk of having 45% of our financial assets in my company stock. In June, 2008, my company stock had fallen almost 20% YTD, which was about 5% lower than diversified stock indices. The stock has since recovered and I am actively selling shares using a covered call strategy.

    Answer: Yes, for diversified stock holdings, bonds, and CDs. No, for company stock.


  • Should I change my investment strategy? In a bull market, almost every investment strategy, even the poor ones, seem to make money. However, during bear markets, poor investment strategies seem to lose the most money. For example, a buy on dips strategy for tech stocks worked very well for me in the late 90s, but in 2002 such a strategy only resulted in significant losses.

    At this point, I am comfortable with the allocation and investment strategies in the managed accounts and my stock selection system. Although both are currently down, I believe the stocks in both will recover as the market recovers. Thus, I continue to maintain the funds in these portfolios.

    The only refinement to the strategy is that I am not investing any new money into these accounts. The funds generated from selling my company stock will remain in cash for the short term.

    Answer: No major change, just a small refinement.
  • These answers are based on my belief that Treasury and Congress can come to an agreement for a plan to increase liquidity and stabilize the markets. The answers to these questions might change if the economic or financial market situations worsen.

    For more on The Practice of Personal Finance , check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tuesday, September 23, 2008

    Still not Buying Stocks

    Just about every day, I see an article about stocks to buy for the market recovery. While I find the information interesting, I am still not buying. The investing mistakes I made in 2002 are still very fresh in my mind and I don't plan to make the same mistakes again in 2008.

    For now, I do not plan to to invest any new money until I believe the market has demonstrated a reversal of the downward trend. Given the seriousness of the financial issues, I expect it may take a year or more for the stock market to begin to show signs of recovery.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Monday, September 22, 2008

    9/22/08 Stock Position Update - Bailout!

    I continue to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. So far I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. Given the extreme volatility of the market, I continue to be cautious for both purchases and selling short.

    Due primarily the perception of a government bailout, the holdings gained almost 10% from Monday's close. The overall portfolio is down 5.1% and the remaining holdings are down 12.0%, rebounding from the lows on Monday last week. The only other positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.

    For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). On August 8, 2008, the system gave a sell signal for Williams Cos. and it has dropped off the buy list. On 8/22/2008, Range Resources also received a sell signal. The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Buy List

    Stock
    [purchase date]
    SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 9/19/08

    Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

    $58.17

    $52.09

    Potash (POT) [7/18/08]10

    $215.09

    $175.24

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]50

    $39.46

    $35.24

    Potash (POT) [7/24/08]10

    $192.02

    $175.24


    *Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. I plan to sell it once it reaches the original purchase price.

    At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks. Although I am extremely tempted to buy more as the stocks decline, I will make no additional purchases at this time.
    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
    Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

    $38.10

    closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69



    I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting, but have not identified other good candidates as of today.

    On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $43.80 on 9/22/08, after going as high as $46.87 . It appears I may get the opportunity to short this stock again.

    The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 9/22/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 12.48%, 14.27%, and 13.18% year to date. The three indices are above the third bottom of 17.70%, 17.81%, and 18.77% in my 9/15/08 Stock Position Update. Unfortunately, I think another bottom may still yet occur.

    I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in the remainder 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.

    For now, I am shifting to more cash and I will also try to create a short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Research in Motion, Range Resources, Williams Companies, Hess, and Sears Holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Sunday, September 21, 2008

    Thank You Henry Paulson

    I am glad there is someone like Hank Paulson that working to FIX the credit crisis and avoid meltdown of U.S. financial systems.

    Money and financial systems are based on confidence, the belief that paper currency is worth the value stated on the bill. Confidence in the U.S. credit system nearly disappeared last week as major financial companies lost access to funds needed to stay in business. Someone with financial market knowledge needed to step in and take decisive action.

    To me, this government bailout is not about saving more companies, e.g. AIG, Morgan Stanley, etc. It's about maintaining confidence the U.S. monetary and financial systems, which the government needs to do. Historically, when the government has ignored this responsibility, the U.S. has fallen into recession and even sometimes, depression.

    Even with this action, I believe the U.S will experience a recession and a lengthy recovery. However, that is better than the alternative of a meltdown if nothing were done.

    For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Thursday, September 18, 2008

    Will this Financial Crisis become a Panic?

    There have been fourteen banking panics in the U.S., but none since the Great Depression, with the last one being in 1933. Historically, it seems that many of panics are caused by bubbles, a crisis of confidence, or a credit tightening. In addition, many panics occurred during or close to an economic recession.

    In 2008, we experienced all three causes with the housing bubble, subprime mortgage defaults and a liquidity crisis. The housing bubble was created by low interest rates and loose lending standards, driving up prices and creating a building boom. Loans were facilitated by CDOs which were perceived to be high yield, and low risk debt instruments. However, as subprime mortgage defaults were increasing, the value of CDOs decreased significantly, reducing the access to money by companies owning CDOs. This caused the failure or merger of several companies that had invested heavily in CDOs.

    To me, the initial rounds of mergers happened to companies directly involved with the crisis. Countrywide, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Indy Mac all actively participated in the creation and bursting of the housing bubble. One could also make the same argument about Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers. Although I believe the Fed should have acted more aggressively, they have done a relatively good job of maintaining order in financial markets by increasing liquidity. At this point, the Fed still appears to have control of the liquidity issues, therefore averting a panic.

    However, the liquidity crisis seems to be affecting more companies that were not directly involved with the housing bubble, e.g. AIG and the Reserve Primary fund. Unfortunately if the issues spread rapidly beyond the core group of companies directly involved, the Fed’s resources may not be sufficient to stop a panic from happening.

    Hopefully, the Fed has learned enough from history to prevent a panic from starting.

    For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Wednesday, September 17, 2008

    Blogger Issues

    Today, issues with Blogger have made it very difficult to compose, edit and publish articles on My Wealth Builder. As a result, I will be taking a short break until the problems are resolved.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Even Money Market Funds Have Downside Risk

    The financial turmoil in the markets is making it clear that all investments have risks, even the supposedly stable money market fund. The share price of the Reserve Primary fund has fallen below $1 according to USA today. The share price has fallen to $0.97 and a seven day hold has been put on redemption requests. This is only the second fund in history to have reduced the value of a share below $1.

    I had briefly considered buying the Reserve Primary fund for my daughter's UTMA account, Fortunately, the amount of funds available was below the minimum purchase requirement. Thus, I kept the funds in the brokerage money market account that was only earning 0.5%, which has turned out better than the 3% loss experienced by holders of the Reserve Primary fund beginning today.

    Needless to say, I've been inquiring about the quality of the money market funds I have with different brokerages. While I believe all of them are safe, I still plan to move some funds to our checking account, where I know the money will be accessible and safe from investment losses. Just as a precaution ...

    For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tuesday, September 16, 2008

    Financial Strength Enables Survival

    When times are good almost everyone does well. In my experience, a crisis will separate the strong from the weak. For a major economic crisis, the financially strong will survive and the financially weak will struggle and perhaps fail or be taken over.

    However, I would never have guessed that three major Wall Street firm would cease to exist as separate entities in 2008. First J.P. Morgan Chase buys Bear Stearns and now Bank of America has taken over Merrill Lynch. Lehman appears headed for bankruptcy. There are now only two remaining stand alone Wall Street firms, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.


    From these investment bank examples, I take away a couple key learnings on financial strength. First, strength requires a good financial foundation designed to weather various economic scenarios. Second, maintaining strength requires managing risks so that likelihood of complete failure is low. In hindsight, it appears that Bear, Merrill, and Lehman missed in both aspects, resulting in their sale or bankruptcy.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, our managed account own Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Lehman Brothers.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Links To Carnivals from September 15, 2008

    Here are links to Carnivals in which My Wealth Builder participated on September 15, 2008:

    Carnival of Family Life

    Festival of Stocks #106

    For more on Ideas You Can Use , check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Monday, September 15, 2008

    9/15/08 Stock Position Update - Market Turmoil Continues

    Last week, I continued to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. So far I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. Given the volatility of the market, I continue to be cautious for both purchases and selling short.

    Due primarily to today's market losses of around 4%, the holdings have continued to decline. The overall portfolio is down 15.0% and the remaining holdings are down 25.6%, achieving a new low. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.

    For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). On August 8, 2008, the system gave a sell signal for Williams Cos. and it has dropped off the buy list. On 8/22/2008, Range Resources also received a sell signal. The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).


    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Buy List
    Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 9/15/08

    Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

    $58.17

    $41.58

    Potash (POT) [7/18/08]10

    $215.09

    $154.10

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]50

    $39.46

    $29.96

    Potash (POT) [7/24/08]10

    $192.02

    $154.10


    *Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. I plan to sell it once it reaches the original purchase price.

    At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks. Although I am extremely tempted to buy more as the stocks decline, I will make no additional purchases at this time.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
    Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

    $38.10

    closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69



    I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting.

    On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $35.33 on 9/15/08. It appears I may have missed the opportunity to short this stock again.

    The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 9/15/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 17.70%, 17.81%, and 18.77% year to date. The three indices are below the second bottoms of 15.2%, 15.58%, and 14.63% in my 7/14/08 Stock Position Update. Unfortunately, I don't think another bottom has been reached yet.

    I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.

    For now, I am shifting to more cash and I will also try to create a short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Research in Motion, Range Resources, Williams Companies, Hess, and Sears Holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Temporary Outage Due to Hurricane Ike

    Even though I am hundreds of miles away from Galveston, Texas, the remnants of Hurricane Ike caused a temporary disruption of electric power in our area. Although we were only without electricity for 24 hours, I became aware of how truly unprepared I am for a "real" emergency.

    Here were my insights:
  • High dependence on media and Internet. With electricity, we didn't have access to local TV broadcasts and the Internet. It was difficult to get any information about the situation in our area since radio mostly continued their regular programming. I finally found a portable TV with a DC cord for the car outlet and we used it to get information.

    In addition, I was not able to make posts to My Wealth Builder :-) and missed my first day of publishing an article over 21 months.


  • Emergency equipment took time to locate. While we had flashlights, candles and batteries, the batteries were the only items we found quickly were batteries. It took us a couple hours to find the six flashlights and candle supplies. Luckily, the power outage occurred during daylight hours.


  • Unprepared for lack of electricity. Although we have had outages for a few hours in the past, we were not prepared for 24 hours or more lack of power. We had no backup power, e.g. small gas powered generator, to keep our refrigerator running. While the freezer was doing well, we probably would have lost the food in our refrigerator after another 12 hours. My spouse's training in food science saved the perishable food since we didn't open the freezer and only opened the refrigerator once during the outage.

    Another unexpected impact was the inability to get gasoline for our vehicles from local gas stations, due to pumps requiring electricity to function. Fortunately, our family car tank was full and I had a class in an area with power this morning.


  • Well prepared with food and water. We had enough canned food, dry goods and water to last a week or more. Fortunately, we have a gas grill and gas stove top which can be used without electric power. In addition, we have a gas hot water heater, which keeps functioning during a power outage.
  • While the power outage was widespread, there were pockets with service and some down areas were brought up quickly. As a result, we were able to still buy food and gasoline from other areas, some of which were within a couple miles. However, I can only imagine the challenges if the entire area was without power, telephone and water, as in the hurricane areas.

    For the future, we will do the following

  • Have power backup for critical items. I have a 12 volt battery that can be charged for use with DC power outlets. If it is charged before potential outage events, we can use it to power the portable TV. We will keep a better inventory of emergency flashlights. I will also consider whether a portable gas powered generator is worth the cost.


  • Maintain our current supplies of non-perishable food and water. We had a comfortable level of food and water for a longer power outage.


  • Develop an emergency plan. While our area relatively free from major natural disasters such as hurricanes, wild fires and earthquakes, we probably need a plan in case of an emergency of large magnitude happens.
  • Of course, we hope to never use an emergency plan or back ups. However, the relatively minor power outage of the last day has convinced me we need to be more ready than we currently are.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Saturday, September 13, 2008

    Dealing with Investing Uncertainty

    "The unknown future rolls toward us." - Sarah Connor in Terminator 2

    Investing during the current economic situation has a lot of people baffled, including many experts. In the past, many advisors (and personal finance bloggers) advocated investing in index funds and forgetting about them until retirement. However, this year has been a tough year, with major indices down 15-20% year to date. Also, the S&P index return has been around 0% for the past decade.

    Many experienced investors and advisors I know view the current situation as one that is different than anything they've ever seen. Uncertainty is the dominant perspective. There are many differing opinions on where to invest.

    Here's how I'm thinking about investing at this time:
  • Maintain or reduce dependence index investing. With the bull market of the eighties and nineties, everyone did well by investing in a diversified stock market index. However, there is a market expression, "Don't mistake a bull market for brains." We all looked smart during a 20 year bull market. Too many people, including experts, assumed a diversified stock market index was the solution to doing well in the market.

    The last 10 years have been have shown that index funds can be flat or losing for long periods of time. The S&P 500 is about flat during that time and the Nasdaq is still over 50% below its all time high in 2000. However, during the same time, there are stocks that had significant gains, e.g. Research in Motion and Monsanto.

    Prior to this bear market, I was planning to increase the amount of funds invested in a diversified stock index. No more. I will continue to keep some funds in a diversified stock index, just in case a bull market resumes. But I won't increase our reliance on an index fund or ETF to deliver the returns we need.


  • Look for companies that can shape the future. For individual stock investing, I want companies who have the potential to be the Microsofts and Dells of the future. In this area, my current picks of stocks for a new era are Amazon and Google.

    Being right can return significant gains for a $1000 investment. However, I need a few more options in order to increase my chances of being right once.


  • Be patient. The bear market will end and a bull market will resume. I plan to wait for a relatively clear indication before putting new money into the market. In addition, I plan to keep funds from sales in cash until market indicators confirm a strong upward trend.

    I realize that I will miss out on some gains since a bear market bottom is confirmed long after it occurs. However, I am willing to trade off some gains to eliminate the pain of new investments falling as the bear market continues.
  • With the market likely to be very volatile through 2009, I plan to stay in my managed accounts, keep my core long term holdings, and sell off a significant portion of my company stock, which is now positive for the year and within 3% of its all time high . For now, I plan to put the cash from selling my company stock in CDs, waiting for a signal that the bear market is over before investing the money in equities again.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I own Amazon and Google in my personal trading accounts. Our managed accounts own Microsoft, Dell, Research in Motion and Monsanto.

    For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Friday, September 12, 2008

    Back to the Tyranny of a Schedule - For a Short Time

    When I retired in my forties in 2007, I turned in my Blackberry and decided to live without a electronic calendar or cell phone. I wanted to get away from having every minute scheduled and always being connected. It was great for 11 months. However, for the next two months (September and October, 2008), I will once again be subject to the tyranny of a schedule.

    I must admit that I created my own problem by taking two 3 hour classes four days a week. From Monday through Thursday, I have a three hour class in the morning and a three hour class in the evening. In between, I try to get some of my personal projects, homework, and family events completed.

    One reason for the high number of classes is the seasonal part time work to which I have applied again. The company offers classes from August to October that allow me to increase my certification level. For the fun of it :-), I am attempting to advance six levels before they rehire me.

    The second reason is that I was given a retraining allowance when I retired. I am trying to make use of this benefit as I investigate options for a next phase career. Since the allowance expires in about a year, I'd like to take most of the courses while I can still be reimbursed.

    For now, my days seem similar to my previous work routine. I'm getting up early, driving during rush hour, going to 6 hours of classes, doing additional work at home, and being evaluated. I'm using an Excel calendar template to keep track of all my commitments. However, it's voluntary and I'm enjoying all the classes so far. Best of all, the extremely busy schedule and calendaring is only for two months. I hope :-)

    For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Thursday, September 11, 2008

    Public Education

    Our plan is for our daughter to attend our local public school system, once she is in kindergarten. There wasn't much deliberation about this. Both my spouse and I attended public schools. My wife attended from kindergarten through 12. I attended a parochial school from kindergarten through 7 and public schools from 8 through 12.

    Here are the reasons we plan to send our daughter to public school:
  • We live in an great school district. In our area, there are several outstanding public school districts. When we returned from our assignment in Japan, we selected a house in one of the excellent school districts, even though we didn't have children at the time.


  • Already paid for. In our state, part of our property tax is used to fund the public schools in our district. In fact, our property taxes are higher than if we had lived in another location. We don't see a need to pay more for education at a private school.


  • Saves money. With private school tuition around $10,000 per year, one will spend more $100,000 for attending kindergarten through 12th grade. Forgoing private school allows that money to be saved for college.
  • Overall, I think a public education in a good school system is competitive with a private school education. There isn't enough difference for us to spend the extra amounts for a private school. However, I do think our current education system no longer sufficiently prepares our children, since most curricula are designed for an industrial economy, versus a knowledge economy. So we plan to augment her education with additional experiences and skill development through extracurricular activities.

    For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or educational advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Wednesday, September 10, 2008

    A Reality Check Helps

    Approaches to financial independence often involve setting a goal, developing a plan and executing against the plan. One aspect that I think is often missed is that of a reality check. Specifically, will achieving the goal allow one to have the level financial independence desired?

    In my experience, reality checks are hard to do without a third party. Self executed reality checks may be overly optimistic, miss flaws, or rationalize potential issues. Here's where a good professional financial advisor can help by taking someone through the analysis of whether a plan is sufficient. In our case, I consulted with our financial advisor four times over two years to analyze and re-analyze our financial readiness for retirement.

    Here are some of the reasons that I had confidence in analysis by our financial advisor:
  • Experience. I was working with a team where the senior financial advisor had over 25 years of experience and other members had over 10 years. Their clients were primarily from the company where I worked, and had a wide range of incomes, both above and below mine.
  • Satisfied retired clients. They provided me with a list of clients from which I could people with whom to talk. I knew several of the people on the list and learned that they were very satisfied with their income during retirement.
  • Benchmarking ability. Since they worked with numerous clients, they were able to compare our financial situation with others who were successful and some that needed to revise retirement goals.
  • Of course, there are never any guarantees. However, having a third party reality check helped us to better understand our financial situation and enabled us to take an opportunity to retire in our forties.

    For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tuesday, September 09, 2008

    Eat Less Live Longer

    Calorie restriction has been demonstrated to increase the lifespan of animals, as much as double for laboratory rats. In addition, the animals seemed to be more fit and the onset of age related infirmities were delayed.

    Theories as to why calorie reduction works include decreasing metabolism, adipose tissue reduction, and triggering specific genes. Although calorie restriction has not been proven to work for humans, some believe that a small level (e.g. 300 to 500 calories out of the recommended 2000 -2500 per day) of voluntary reduction would have longevity and health benefits. For humans, the projected lifespan increase is a range of 3 to 7% or about 4 years.

    Like saving for retirement, there are also debates on whether sacrificing the present (i.e. not eating) for an uncertain future benefit may not be worth it. However, since there are near term health benefits, such as weight loss, a small reduction seems worthwhile to me. I can easily achieve a 300 to 500 calorie reduction by just eliminating snacks. If there is a longevity benefit, that would be a bonus.

    For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or health advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Monday, September 08, 2008

    9/8/08 Stock Position Update - It's Ugly

    As with last week, I continue to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. So far I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. Given the volatility of the market, I continue to be cautious for both purchases and selling short.

    With the declines of the major indices last week, this holding continued to decline. The overall portfolio is down 11.1% and the remaining holdings are down 20.2%, matching the low point on 8/8/08. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.

    For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). On August 8, 2008, the system gave a sell signal for Williams Cos. and it has dropped off the buy list. The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Buy List
    Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 9/5/08

    Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

    $58.17

    $44.31

    Potash (POT) [7/18/08]10

    $215.09

    $162.05

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]50

    $39.46

    $33.79

    Potash (POT) [7/24/08]10

    $192.02

    $162.05


    *Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. I plan to sell it once it reaches the original purchase price.

    At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks, but will make no additional purchases.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
    Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

    $38.10

    closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69


    I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting.

    On 8/15/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at a short term high of $56.30. It closed at $42.62 on 9/5/08. If it rallies into the mid 50s, I may short it again next week.

    The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 9/5/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 13.81%, 14.95%, and 14.14% year to date. The three indices are barely above the second bottoms of 15.2%, 15.58%, and 14.63% in my 7/14/08 Stock Position Update.

    I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.

    For now, I am shifting to more cash and I will also try to create a short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Research in Motion, Range Resources, Williams Companies, Hess, and Sears Holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Sunday, September 07, 2008

    Shifting to More Cash

    At this point, every long investment strategy seems to be losing except for cash, CDs and bonds. US stock indices, foreign market indices, large cap, small cap, and real estate have all underperformed this year. Until July, 2008, commodity investments were the last sector to offer good returns. Now, even commodities have fallen. While some commodities still have a positive return for 2008, the declines in the last 2 month have wiped out most of the gains.

    There have only been two bright spots in my portfolios: CDs/bonds and my company stock. The CDs and bonds have been returning 4-5% annually. After falling 20%, the company stock in my retirement accounts has climbed back to within 7% of the all time high in December, 2007.

    For now, I have switched to a cash is king investment philosophy. As CDs/bonds mature, the funds are reinvested in CDs/bonds. As my company stock rallies, I am selling covered calls and selling stock outright. The cash generated will be invested in CDs/bonds. While I do not plan to sell existing diversified stock holdings (which are down about 20%), I am not making any new investments at this time. Averaging down does not seem wise with the market likely to fall farther in the next few months.

    At this point, it looks like the few that pulled out of the stock market at the beginning of 2008 made the right call.

    For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Saturday, September 06, 2008

    My Impression Of The Presidential Candidates

    "The Democrats are the party that says government will make you smarter, taller, richer, and remove the crabgrass on your lawn. The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." - P.J. O'Rourke

    After watching the two major party conventions, I was hoping to get more details on the candidates platforms and specifics on proposed programs. However, it seemed very little time was devoted to sharing and discussing the platforms, with most of the focus on image and inspiration. So I am still left with mostly impressions on the candidates, based on their performance and, to a lesser extent, their history.

    Here is how I currently see the major party candidates:

  • Obama - Inspirational, purposely vague and calculating. Obama gives excellent speeches with a great populist message that is appealing. In Q&A sessions, he skillfully empathizes with different views, almost to the point of agreeing, before stating his disagreement or opposition. He offers refreshing differentiation from the current administration.

    My disconnect with Obama is that I don't see much evidence of delivering results in his previous positions of state legislator, community organizer or law review president. He seemed to have the title, but not the level of accomplishments I would expect. In addition, he seem to shift positions regularly, even to the point of reversing earlier statements or actions.


  • McCain - Sincere, government reform agent, and predictable character. McCain seems to be a "what you see is what you get" candidate. I believe he would try to shake up Washington if he were elected.

    However, I think it would be tough for one person to reform Washington, especially with the other party has control of Congress. McCain's candidacy would need bring more Republicans into Congress, which doesn't appear likely.


  • Biden - Same old Democratic political machine. Enough said.


  • Palin - Interesting, has potential, more data needed. Her first major speech made a great impression, enough to call her a rising star. However, she will need to have continued good showings for the next 58 days.
  • At this point, I still believe this is Obama's election to win or lose. I was very surprised by his VP pick. While bolstering his foreign policy weakness, the choice of Biden weakened Obama's position of being a different and new breed of politician. In my opinion, picking Clinton as VP would have demonstrated he was savvy enough to handle any political situation (including Bill) and maximized Obama's chances to win in November.

    For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or political advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Friday, September 05, 2008

    Retirement Savings Lessons Re-Learned from the Housing Bust

    How the Housing Crash Hurts Your Retirement by Walter Updegrade from CNN.com highlights problems scenarios caused by the housing bubble which had a negative impact for some retirement plans when housing crashed. The problem scenarios identified by the article were:
  • Joining because making "guaranteed" money. With "everybody" making money in housing, some began to concentrate more investments or take more risks in real estate assets. While housing values were rapidly rising, housing investments were great.


  • Reduction in savings rate. With a rising market, some start putting away less, letting the gains substitute for savings. Since very few sell at the top, the gains can often temporary in a bubble market.


  • Increasing debt payments. People began to borrow against the increased equity of their home. However, for those that did not sell their home, they now carry higher debt payments on a home that has decreased in value.
  • In my experience, similar scenarios have occurred with other asset bubble and ensuing crashes, such as tech stocks in 2000 to 2002 and gold in the late seventies.

    Our goal for retirement savings is to preserve wealth, and therefore, we tend to be conservative in our investments. For those areas which are potentially in a bubble, our solution is to only invest a small portion of our portfolio, less than 5% in most cases. While I may not gain as much as others, I also won't lose as much when there is a crash.

    For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Thursday, September 04, 2008

    Eating Real Food

    When I was a child, we ate a much lower proportion of prepared foods. Our mother made most of our meals from scratch with fresh vegetables and meats. Of course, we did eat some prepared foods, including bread, ice cream, cake mixes, butter and TV dinners. We also had an occasional meal at a fast food restaurant.

    Today, between eating out and the multitude of packaged foods, it seems easy to have most of our foods already prepared. When we were both working, prepared foods offered an opportunity to save time when having meal. Although convenient, prepared foods do not seem to be as beneficial as eating fresh foods that we prepare ourselves. Over the past few years, we've been moving back eating a higher proportion of unprepared and natural foods.

    Here are the choices we are making:
  • Organic and natural. We're choosing to buy vegetables that are organically grown and meats that are both organic and grass fed. When possible, we buy from local farmer's markets. We've noticed that organic and natural foods often taste better, especially when we can get them locally.


  • Whole wheat grains. Of course, it is nearly impossible to avoid all prepared foods. Although we want to continue to reduce processed foods high in carbohydrates, we try to choose the healthier options when eating them. For breads, crackers and cookies, we are choosing whole grain varieties.


  • Fresh vegetables. We have started getting some vegetables from weekly farmer's markets. In addition to better taste, we expect to get better nutritional value.


  • Home cooking. About 90% of our meals are prepared at home, guaranteeing that they are both nutritious and delicious. Of course, we still do eat out occasionally, both for convenience and entertainment.
  • We have not gone as far as growing our own vegetables, as my father-in-law and sister do. For now, we aren't planning on starting a vegetable garden because we can still get a good variety of products from farmer's markets. If the availability of local produce declines, we may consider starting a small organic vegetable garden.

    For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or nutritional advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Wednesday, September 03, 2008

    Spending Statistics

    These statistics show why consumer spending may not be able to avert an economic downturn. The consumer may already be near their maximum capability to spend.
  • Spending more money than earned. According to Bankrate.com, about "40% of American families annually spend more than they earn."


  • Living paycheck to paycheck. According to a CareerBuilder.com article 41% of workers often or always live paycheck to paycheck.
  • Both of these statistics were based on data from before the mortgage and credit crisis. I expect the percentages are now even higher, making it more difficult for the consumer to save the economy.

    For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Tuesday, September 02, 2008

    Hypermiling - Four Month Results

    When I wrote about trying to increase gas mileage through hypermiling, I was excited about the possibility of gaining about 10% or more in gas mileage. While I didn't track my gas mileage rigorously, I recall getting about 19 mpg when commuting for work. My results with hypermiling have been less than stellar, with an average of 17.25 mpg since May, 2008.

    Although disappointed, I think I can explain the reason for the decrease in mpg. While working, over half of my driving miles were on the highway, with at least 100 highway miles per week. Since retiring in my forties in 2007, I drive mostly city miles, with an average one way distance of less than 5 miles. Thus, I've lost the benefit of highway miles, and the engine warming up to maximum efficiency.

    My biggest savings has been just driving less. Since my spouse's car has the child car seat, we use her car for all family outings. Without a commute, I am driving much fewer miles in total and spending much less on gas. From May, 2008 to the through August 2008, I have driven only 824 miles, with total gasoline purchases of $186. Thus in four months, I've done the equivalent of one month's driving when I was working.

    I will continue to use the basic elements of hypermiling (e.g., accelerate slowly, coast when stopping is likely), but I'm not going to worry too much about increasing gas mileage for my vehicle. While hypermiling may help a little bit, driving less will be the major savings for me.

    For more Ideas You Can Use, check back on Tuesdays for the next segment.

    This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.


    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

    Monday, September 01, 2008

    9/1/08 Stock Position Update - No Changes

    As with last week, I continue to take no further action based on my buy list and short list of 7/7/08. So far I have taken four long and one short position, which has been closed. At this point, I believe the market is in a short term rally. Given the volatility of the market, I continue to be cautious for both purchases and selling short.

    At this time, the holdings are up from last week but still not doing well. The overall portfolio has is down 6.5% and the remaining holdings are down 13.9%. The only positive still has been the gain from shorting Las Vegas Sands.

    For reference, the stocks on my 7/7/08 buy list were: Potash (POT), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bucyrus (BUCY), Williams Cos. (WMB), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess (HES), and Range Resources (RRC). On August 8, 2008, the system gave a sell signal for Williams Cos. and it has dropped off the buy list. The stocks on my 7/7/08 short list were: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Sears Holdings (SHLD), and Life Time Fitness (LTM).

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Buy List
    Stock [purchase date]SharesPurchase Price

    Price on 8/29/08

    Range Resources(RRC) [7/10/08]*50

    $58.17

    $46.42

    Potash (POT) [7/18/08]10

    $215.09

    $173.60

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) [7/18/08]50

    $39.46

    $38.37

    Potash (POT) [7/24/08]10

    $192.02

    $173.60


    *Range Resources received a sell signal on August 22, 2008. I plan to sell it once it reaches the original purchase price.

    At this point, I will continue to hold these stocks, but will make no additional purchases.

    From My Wealth Builder 7/7/08 Short List
    Stock [short date]SharesShort Price

    Price

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) [7/7/08]100

    $38.10

    closed 7/11/08 @ $33.69


    I have only able to short Las Vegas Sands so far, which I have closed. I won't be shorting Sears Holdings and Lifetime Fitness since both stocks need to be "rented" from a shareholder for about 0.1% a day and a minimum of $50,000 needs to be shorted. Too expensive for me to short. I need to find other stocks for shorting.

    On 8/22/08, Las Vegas Sands closed at $40.33, significantly lower than the close of the previous week at $56.30. It rallied back to $47.41 close on 8/29/08. If it rallies into the mid 50s, I may short it again next week.

    The market continues to be choppy. All three indices have been in bear market territory. As of the close on 8/29/08, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were respectively down 11.43%, 10.74%, and 11.39% year to date. The three indices are still significantly above the second bottoms of 15.2%, 15.58%, and 14.63% in my 7/14/08 Stock Purchase Update.

    I continue to believe that the probability of a recession in 2008 is relatively high, if we are not already in one. The multitude of negative factors will eventually outweigh any actions by the government and financial institutions. Originally, the Fed interest rate cuts and other actions led me to expect that the bull market would last through summer, 2008. However, the economic data of the first half 2008 has caused the bull market to end earlier. I expect the market to continue to be choppy in 2008 with many short term rallies and declines.

    For now, I will try to create a long and short portfolio in my trading account. I will continue to maintain my holdings managed by our financial advisor, and plan to sell a duplicated funds during any strong rally which may occur.

    Disclosure: At time of publication, I am long Range Resources, Potash and Southwestern in my trading account. The managed accounts are long Range Resources, Hess, and Sears Holdings.

    For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

    This is not financial or investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

    Copyright © 2008 Achievement Catalyst, LLC