Saturday, December 31, 2016

Predicting an Awesome 2017

"It's time to make money again." ~ comment after the election by hedge fund manager who supported Hillary Clinton

I'm looking forward to a great year financially in 2017.    Many investors  believe the new administration will foster a stock market boom (and perhaps bust) in the coming years.   Being invested will result in great returns.

First, I think that the U.S. government will return to support business and economic development instead of being a significant hindering factor, as it has been.   This will lead businesses to invest more, which in turn will grow the economy.

Second, I think U.S. consumer will be more willing to spend due to a better expected economic future.   Personally, we spent more this holiday season than in past years.   Based on traffic I saw around local shopping malls, I think more people spent more than in previous years.

Third, I think the U.S. government will significantly increase infrastructure spending.  Really.  This will bring much needed improvements to the infrastructure and help build economic optimism.

Fourth, the vilification of people who work hard and make significant incomes will end.  It will once again  be OK to make money, even lots of it.

Fifth, a risk-on mentality is returning, because the possibility of high rewards is returning.   This will lead more investment and asset valuation increases.

At this point, I'm not yet ready to go all in.  But I am much more willing to put more funds in stocks and other investments, for the potential of excess returns.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back Saturdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Sunday, December 18, 2016

The Return of Economic Optimism

Economic sentiment seems to be improving significantly.  Since the election, the stock market and interest rates are higher.  Real estate also seems to be doing better.  According to Zillow, our house value has increased 30% to its highest estimated value since 2007.  Also, businesses seem to be more positve about their future than before.

Positive sentiment doesn't necessarily translate into improved economic results, but it is a good start.   Optimistic expectations often lead to more investment, which leads to postive economic outcomes.

I'm looking forward to good year for our investments in 2017.

For more on New Beginnings, check back Sundays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Trading Ideas for After the Fed Meeting

I have no idea what impact the Fed meeting will have on stocks and bonds.  But I am ready to take action for a major move in either direction.

I expect the Fed to raise interest rates.  Past that, I have no expectations.  I have no predictions on the magnitude of the increase or the tone of the Fed notes.   So the markets may react either positively or negatively.

Option 1.   The stock and bond market react negatively.   I have a list of stocks that I will try to purchase at lower prices.    Sectors that I am considering are:  Biotech, Pharma, Utilities and Consumer Staples,   These have been the laggard sectors since the election.  I've been waiting for them to go lower.

Option 2.  The stock market reacts positively.   I will use the opportunity to trim shares in positions with significant gains.   At this point, I would reduce holding mainly in the total stock market ETFs, financials and oil stocks.   These have rallied signficantly since the election and I expect a short term top is near.   If material stocks surpass recent highs, I would also consider selling some of these.

Option 3.  The markets are flat.   I will make small selective purchases of a few stocks I have been following.

I expect Option 1 will occur, so I will take the George Costanza opposite choice and go with Option 2.

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back Tuesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Monday, December 12, 2016

Finally Profiting from Out of Favor Energy Stocks

In late 2014,  I started to buy oil stocks which had fallen significantly.   In 2015, I continued to buy as oil stocks fell further.    In 2016, I continued to buy as some oil stocks reached new lows.  Then the pain became to great and I stopped buying.

With the recent speculated OPEC (but not yet delivered) cut backs in production, oil stocks have been on a tear lately, advancing as much as 20% in a day.  During this time, I have been selling parts of positions into the rally.   I was skeptical that the stock rally was sustainable at such high rates of gain.

However, the gains have been continuing, I have revised my outlook.   It seems this rally may be more like the 1.5 year rally in 2013 to mid 2014, where many oil stocks rose to new highs.  If history repeats, oil stocks may continue to rally throught 2017, which would be great.

So for now, I'm going to let our oil stocks ride and maximize our profits.  For some of the big gainers (e.g. about 100%), I may lock in some gains and take some profits.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back Mondays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Saturday, December 10, 2016

I'm Not This Smart

"There is nothing like quite like a bull market to make people think they are smart." ~ Jim Rogers

Since the 2016 election, my stock investments have been going higher.   Some stocks have gone up as much as 100% during that time.  About 95% of my new purchases in the past couple months have risen in price.

I am just not that good of an investor at picking stocks.  It's the market that is rising  I've been lucky to make some buys just before the election and am benefiting from those purchases.

Right now, I believe this market advance will last at least until the end of 2016,since upward momentum and stock market conviction has returned.  I think the S&P will continue to rise and reach 2300 by year end as I forecast in A George Costanza Stock Market.

After that who knows what will happen, but my inner George Constanza predicts a 20-30% advance for the S&P :-)

For more on  Reflections and Musings, check back Saturdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Amazon's Future of Shopping

Amazon Go, the cashierless grocery store, is another step in the evolution of shopping.   For my grandparents, store inventory was stocked in a back room and retrieved by the store clerk.  When I was a child,  shopping was self service, with payment at a central cashier.  Self-serve checkouts came after I became an adult.  Now, Amazon has advanced to no checkout.

There are some concerns that this will be the end of cashier jobs, of which there are 686,000 in the grocery industry.  That may be true.  However, there will be thousands of other jobs created.   As I read it, the technology is based on a number of cameras and sensors tracking the shopper through the store, and interpreting the shoppers actions to determine what is being purchased.   These cameras and sensors will need to be maintained, audited and periodically replaced.   Also, more security will be needed to update systems as hackers try to game the processes.  That will create numerous new job positions, although probably not directly transferable for displaced cashiers.

In addition, there may be opportunities for new higher value service positions that improve the shopping experience: for example, food concierges, who can help diets, recipes and other food related areas to differentiate stores from self serve status.  When the routine work is automated, knowledge based services will still be of value, IMHO.

It will be very interesting to watch how this experiment evolves, and its impact on the future of work for my children.

For more on Crossing Generations, check back Thursdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Financial Education Books

My brother-in-law asked my spouse what I might like for Christmas.  Usually, I don't have any good ideas.   However, this year I gave it some quality thinking and decided to request one of two investment books.  The first book is Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings by Phillip Fisher.   Warren Buffet claims to have used the principles in this book for his investing.  The second book is The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing by Benjamin Graham.   This is the classic textbook for value investing.

I have not read either book and based on reviews, I thought they would help improve my investing knowledege and results.





Disclosure:  No compensation was received for writing this post.  If  purchases are made through the above Amazon.com link, I may receive compensation as an Amazon affiliate member.

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back Wednesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Hunting for Value

Despite the stock market being near or at all time highs, there is still opportunity to find stocks on sale because they are out of favor, despite no fundamental changes in the companies' businesses. For example, REITs, consumer staples and utlility stocks have been going lower, getting close to 52 week lows.   While I understand the reason for the decline is that interests are expected to rise, it seems to me the stocks have been beaten down more than would be appropriate.  

So I've been buying small amounts of stock in these three sectors.  As usual, I may be early and the stock will be decline further.   However, I do expect the good companies in these sectors to rebound and these stocks also pay a good dividend (3-7%) which is a bonus while waiting.

Stocks I am considering:   Procter & Gamble (PG), Duke Energy (DUK), Phillip Morris (PM) Realty Income Corporation (O), National Retail Property (NNN), Game and Leisure Property (GLPI) and W.P. Carey (WPC).

Disclosure:  We own PG, DUK, PM, O and, NNN.  We may take positions in GLPI and WPC in the next 72 hours.

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back Tuesdays for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Sunday, December 04, 2016

The Return of Economic and Financial Hope

My sentiment about the economy and financial opportunity has significantly improved in past month.  To me the reward/risk ratio has significantly increased for people invest money, invest resources, and invest personal effort for financial gain. Financial opportunity will greater for more people, and more money can be earned.

The pendulum is swinging towards rewarding people for the results they can deliver.  Personally, I have typically done better in a meritocracy (e.g. school, sports) where results mattered more, than in a bureaucracy (e.g  major corporations, government) where politics mattered more.

I am looking forward to having many more opportunities for financial success.

For more on New Beginnings, check back Sundays for a new segment.


This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2016 Achievement Catalyst, LLC