Wednesday, January 25, 2017

My Reasons to Stay Invested

Five reasons to stay invested despite heightened uncertainty by Jefferey Kleintop gives five logical quantitative based reasons to remain in the current market.   The reasons makes sense to me but are lacking in conviction.

So here are my (five) qualitative reasons for staying invested in this market:

  • Economic optimism is back.  Business leaders believe the future is bright.  They are hiring and investing in their businesses. Government created headwinds are expected to be reduced.
  • No irrational exuberance yet.  Although the stock market is near all time highs, this is the most unloved bull market I have ever experienced.   Unlike previous bull markets, no one talks about stocks at social gatherings.  Very few of my acquaintances are even interested in stocks.  
  • Still lots of money on the sidelines.  There is still a lot of cash waiting for the "inevitable" market crash.   I know of people who sold out of equities just before and right after the election.  This money may return on dips and keep the bull market alive.
  • Negative expectations are top of mind.  Lots of people expect a recession or market crash to happen in the near future.  Very few people expect the bull market to be sustainable much longer. (Except maybe George Costanza:-)  
  • Individual exceptionalism is valued again.  Well, maybe not valued yet, but at least it is no longer vilified.  It is now OK again to be a business owner, investor or capitalist to make money.  I expect more people to use the opportunities available, work hard and succeed.

  • Finally, I believe the stocks we own are of good companies that would rebound from any economic decline.

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